Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
